Labour Warns of Apathy
in Welsh Assembly Elections
By EIFION WILLIAMS
Elections will be held on May 3 for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly. The governing Labour Parties in both countries are becoming increasingly concerned that they may lose their right to govern after the election.
In Scotland, the main threat to the Labour-controlled governing coalition comes from the Scottish National Party (SNP) which appears to be gaining some momentum at the expense of Labour. Although no party is likely to gain an overall majority, Labour is fearful of losing enough seats that a coalition of the SNP and one or more of the other parties could take over the reins of government.
A similar situation threatens Rhodri Morgan's Labour government in Wales. Labour has been the dominant political force in Wales for over a century, regularly sending an overwhelming number of Members to the British Parliament. But in the first two elections for the Assembly, Labour has failed to win an overall majority. In the current Assembly the party holds 29 seats.
Although Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalist Party) is currently the second largest party in the Assembly, it is the Conservatives that Labour fears might win enough seats to form a coalition government with one or both of the other parties, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats.
According to First Minister Rhodri Morgan, the main threat to a Labour government is voter apathy, the assumption that a Tory or Tory-led coalition could never be elected in Wales, which might result in many voters not bothering to cast a ballot.
Recently, Tony Blair, addressing the Welsh Labour Party convention in Llandudno, reminded the Welsh that "A Tory party that damaged Wales in the past, is against progress in the present and has nothing to offer Wales in the future."
Despite these dire warnings, most commentators predict a drop in the Labour vote in May. Yet this may not necessarily mean a change in government. Plaid Cymru is unlikely to join a Tory-led coalition and has threatened to sue anyone who suggests that they would.
The coming election is also significant because the Westminster Parliament plans to transfer more power to the Assembly under the Government of Wales Bill. It also plans to use the act to change an electoral system that has enabled losing candidates to be elected on a regional basis according to proportional representation. Under the Bill, candidates will have to choose one or the other electoral route.
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